Exchange and Prediction-Market Pricing, Measured

The same matched-lines measurement, run over a set that pairs sportsbooks against the exchanges, with trading fees applied before anything is compared.

The Odds Gap · Measured from our own scans · Last updated August 25, 2026

The answer, as of August 25, 2026

Polymarket US posted the best price most often across 249 matched games over the last 30 days, on 74.7% of 9,702 matched price checks, ahead of FanDuel at 10.4%. So a prediction market can and does beat the sportsbooks on price on this set. An exchange is not automatically a better price and not automatically a worse one: the ranking moves by sport, by market and by week, so it has to be checked rather than assumed. Kalshi, priced at the executable ask with its taker fee applied rather than at the screen price, was best on 2.8% of the same checks.

Disclosure: BetMGM, ProphetX, Kalshi, Novig and Polymarket US are affiliate partners of The Odds Gap. The measurements on this page are computed from scanned prices and are never weighted toward a partner. Where a partner ranks is where the prices put it.

What is measured

Best-price share on matched lines: a market counts only when every venue in the comparison set quoted it, so the books are compared on identical bets at identical moments.

The matched set, ranked

30 days, 249 matched games, 9,702 matched price checks. A market counts only when every venue in the set quoted it at the same moment, so these are identical bets rather than a general average. Exchange prices carry their trading fee before comparison, so a flagged exchange price is what you would actually pay.

#	Venue	Best-price share	Matched scans
1	Polymarket US	74.7%	9,702
2	FanDuel	10.4%	9,702
3	Pinnacle	10.2%	9,702
4	DraftKings	8.5%	9,702
5	Kalshi	2.8%	9,702

Kalshi is priced at the executable ask with its taker fee applied, not at the screen price. An earlier version of this comparison used the bid and put Kalshi at the top of every set; that was a pricing bug, and the correction is why this page states that no venue dominates.

How to check this yourself

How fees are applied and lines are matched
The live exchange-versus-book board
The price archive every figure here is computed from: free, unauthenticated, one row per scan, book, market and side.

Cite this page: https://theoddsgap.com/reference/exchange-vs-sportsbook-pricing, as of August 25, 2026.

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