What We Tested About +EV Prices
How It Works
We checked, on our own stored prices, whether prices above our fair number pay. This is what we found and what we changed.
November 2026. Our +EV board shows prices that are better than the market's fair number. We wanted to know whether those prices actually pay off, so we checked, using our own stored prices and the final results from late August to early November 2026.
What we found
It was not shown. Across game lines in five sports and player props in three, prices above our fair number were not shown to return more than they cost in any group we checked. Many game-line groups had too few such prices to judge either way. On props, prices at our fair number lost money in our test, mostly on overs; we are checking why.
What we changed
The number on the board now reads Above Fair instead of Edge or EV, and the Expected Profit dollar figures are gone. The board shows the same plays, worked out the same way.
What it still means
A price above fair is a better price than the rest of the market for the same bet. It is not a forecast of profit. The +EV board and Sharp Lotto were never staked or sold as a betting record.
- Game lines: fair price from the sharp book's line with its margin removed.
- Props: fair price from the middle of the sportsbooks' prices with their margins removed.
What we are testing next
Why props at our fair number lost, and whether prices above fair hold up on a larger sample. We will publish what we find, whichever way it goes.
How every number on the site is worked out: Methodology. The board itself: +EV Plays.