EV Calculator

What expected value means

Expected value (EV) is the average profit or loss a bet would return if you could place it over and over. A bet is +EV when the price you get pays more than the true odds of the outcome, and -EV when it pays less. Sharp bettors do not chase wins, they chase +EV, because edge compounds and variance washes out.

The formula this calculator uses is EV = fairProb × (decimalOdds - 1) - (1 - fairProb), per dollar staked. The only hard part is the fair probability, which is why this tool can devig a sharp two-sided line for you: it strips the vig from a market like Pinnacle to recover the true, no-juice chance of your side.

How to use it

Type the American odds you can actually bet. Then either enter the fair win probability directly, or switch to "devig a sharp two-sided line" and paste both prices from a sharp book. A positive EV% means the bet beats fair value. To see live +EV plays across every book without doing this by hand, use our +EV Plays board, and read the full method on the Expected Value explainer.

Keep going

The Odds Gap holds every book's price, so you do not have to type them in by hand. Skip straight to the live tools: