Cumulative Units
Flat 1 unit per play, 2026-07-09 through 2026-07-16. Every win and every loss is on the curve.
The Ledger
Every daily +EV pick since day one, newest first. One pick per day, graded against the official final score.
| Date | Game | Pick | Book | Price | Pinnacle fair | Edge | Result | Units | Running |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | WNBANew York Liberty @ Dallas Wings Jul 16, 9:00 PM ET | Dallas Wings ML | DraftKings | -125 | -134 | +1.6% | pending | — | -2.42u |
| 2026-07-14 | WNBAPortland Fire @ Connecticut Sun 87–90 Jul 14, 11:10 AM ET | Portland Fire ML | Novig | +122 | +107 | +3.4% | loss | -1.00u | -2.42u |
| 2026-07-13 | WNBALos Angeles Sparks @ Atlanta Dream 92–101 Jul 13, 7:00 PM ET | Los Angeles Sparks ML | Novig | +300 | +258 | +2.9% | loss | -1.00u | -1.42u |
| 2026-07-12 | MLBPhiladelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers 5–0 Jul 12, 1:41 PM ET | Philadelphia Phillies ML | Novig | +115 | +106 | +2.0% | win | +1.15u | -0.42u |
| 2026-07-11 | WNBAPhoenix Mercury @ Las Vegas Aces 58–106 Jul 11, 6:00 PM ET | Phoenix Mercury ML | ProphetX | +363 | +317 | +2.4% | loss | -1.00u | -1.57u |
| 2026-07-10 | WNBAGolden State Valkyries @ Connecticut Sun 79–64 Jul 10, 7:40 PM ET | Golden State Valkyries ML | Novig | -233 | -265 | +2.7% | win | +0.43u | -0.57u |
| 2026-07-09 | MLBSeattle Mariners @ Miami Marlins 4–8 Jul 9, 6:41 PM ET | Seattle Mariners ML | Novig | -125 | -136 | +2.0% | loss | -1.00u | -1.00u |
"Pinnacle fair" is the de-vigged Pinnacle price on the same side at the moment the pick was recorded. "Price" is the best displayed sportsbook price at that same moment. Soccer picks settle like a moneyline bet: a draw or a loss in 90 minutes is a loss, and the rare game auto-graded on an extra-time score gets corrected to the 90-minute result, never hidden.
How This Works
- Every pick is chosen by the same +EV rule shown publicly on the +EV Plays board: the price that most beats the de-vigged Pinnacle fair line at close. No judgment calls, no cherry-picking.
- The price is recorded at pick time. The record reflects what was actually available on a book we display, not a price reconstructed after the fact.
- Every pick is graded automatically against the official final score. Win, loss or push, it goes in the ledger.
- Every play is a flat 1 unit. No "5-unit MAX PLAY" games with the sizing.
- Losses are never deleted. The record above includes every pick since day one.
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