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@TheOddsGap
Lotto-ticket odds, +EV prices.
Plays where the most you can lose is small next to what you win when it hits. The chance comes from the books' own prices with the vig removed.
Risk is the most the two tickets can lose together. Win is what they collect when both hit. Chance is the market's own, with the vig removed. Stake is the total across both tickets.
A Smart Lotto play is two bets at two books on opposite sides of the same game, where the most you can lose is small next to what you collect when it hits. Most are middles: an over at one number and an under at a higher one, so a result between them cashes both tickets. Some are arbs, where the two prices together pay something on every result.
Every row shows the same numbers. Risk is the most the two tickets can lose together when only one of them wins, after the vig. Win is what they collect when both hit, or for an arb the profit on every result (Chance 100%). Chance is the market's own: each side's price with the vig removed, the same way our +EV board reads a fair price. The multiplier is Win over Risk, and +EV % is the expected profit over the total stake on both tickets.
A row is listed only when it wins at least 5 times what it risks, the market's chance is known, and its +EV % is above zero. Prices move, often before both tickets are placed, and books limit accounts that take middles and arbs often. Re-check both prices before you bet. Want the math on your own pair? The Middle Calculator shows the same strip. All middles, including the ones that miss these rules, are on the Middle Finder. Have a profit boost or a free bet? Boost Arb shows the strip on your own boosts.
Math, not picks. Nothing here says what a play will earn over time.