Jake Ferguson

The line. Every count is against the line most books hang on this prop today, the line shown at the top of each section. A game exactly on a whole-number line is a push and shown as one.

The game log. Each past game shows the stat and, where we stored the prop's closing line for that game, the line it closed at and whether the stat went over, under or pushed against it. A game with no stored closing line shows the stat alone.

The games. From the box scores ESPN publishes, stored once per game, the same numbers the site's prop grading reads. Last season is kept for the whole season. A split with fewer than 5 games is hidden, never shown as a streak.

Opponents. Top 10 and Bottom 10 defenses are ranked from our own logs: the total of this stat every opposing player recorded against a team, per game, over the last 150 days.

Rest, travel and conditions. From each game's own context: days since the team's previous game, and for outdoor football the weather at the nearest airport weather station closest to kickoff (from the National Weather Service, or for games more than a week old the Iowa Environmental Mesonet archive of the same stations). Indoor games are never given weather.

Past results, not predictions. The betting line already reflects most of what is on this page.