Elerson G. Smith

The line. Every count is against the line most books hang on this prop today, the line shown at the top of each section. A game exactly on a whole-number line is a push and shown as one.

The games. From the box scores ESPN publishes, stored once per game, the same numbers the site's prop grading reads. Last season is kept for the whole season. A split with fewer than 5 games is hidden, never shown as a streak.

Opponents. Top 10 and Bottom 10 defenses are ranked from our own logs: the total of this stat every opposing player recorded against a team, per game, over the last 150 days.

Rest, travel and conditions. From each game's own context: days since the team's previous game, and for outdoor football the weather near kickoff. Indoor games are never given weather.

Past results, not predictions. The betting line already reflects most of what is on this page.